LMT
LMT
Bouncing (RSI 60) but still below 50DMA after -18% 3m — not a confirmed uptrend
Price
Price at analysis
$529.84
The case
● Bull — what supports it
Down ~25% from highs and cheap (~17x NTM, discount to peers) into a record $1.5T FY2027 budget proposal and Golden Dome ($185B) tailwind; RSI 60 recovering, low 1.9% ATR; F-35/missiles backlog.
● Bear — what refutes it
Below 50DMA, ~at 200DMA, -17.9% 3m; Q1 was the clear prime disappointment (revenue miss, FCF swung negative) on execution/margin issues — value trap risk until margins stabilize.
What would change our mind
Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.
- Another quarter of margin/charge disappointment or program cost overruns.
The verdict
Sector analyst (Drake panel)–neutral
conviction 0.50
- Bouncing (RSI 60) but still below 50DMA after -18% 3m — not a confirmed uptrend
- Execution/margin overhang offsets cheap valuation + budget tailwind
Risks: Below 50DMA, ~at 200DMA, -17.9% 3m; Q1 was the clear prime disappointment (revenue miss, FCF swung negative) on execution/margin issues — value trap risk until margins stabilize.
Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.