Second Order/ stocks
← All runs·Jun 10, 2026
SOFI
SOFI
HOLD

Below 50/200DMA, weak 3m

P(upside)46%
coin-flip = 50%
Conviction0.50
Horizon2-6 weeks
ResolutionPending graded vs the realized move

Price

Price at analysis
$16.16

The case

● Bull — what supports it

High-growth fintech, member growth; neutral RSI and trendless tape could base here.

● Bear — what refutes it

Below both MAs, -12.8% 3m, 6.2% ATR volatility, no trend.

What would change our mind

Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.

  • Reclaim 50DMA on volume with ADX building.

The verdict

Sector analyst (Drake panel)neutral
conviction 0.50
  • Below 50/200DMA, weak 3m
  • No trend (ADX 23), high volatility
Risks: Below both MAs, -12.8% 3m, 6.2% ATR volatility, no trend.
Analyzed Jun 10, 2026 Resolves Jul 10, 2026 Schema v3 Run 1f203c2b9146e31c Engine Drake · synthesized panel

Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.