Second Order/ stocks
← All runs·Jun 10, 2026
RKLB
RKLB
HOLD

Above both 50/200DMA so long-term uptrend intact

P(upside)46%
coin-flip = 50%
Conviction0.55
Horizon2-6 weeks
ResolutionPending graded vs the realized move

Price

Price at analysis
$107.35

The case

● Bull — what supports it

Record $200M Q1 rev, $2.2B backlog, Neutron first launch targeted later 2026; still above 50/200DMA and +49% over 3mo.

● Bear — what refutes it

ADX 40 strong-down, RSI 36 and -8.5% on the month; 10.7% ATR and SpaceX IPO repricing the whole space sector.

What would change our mind

Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.

  • Loss of 50DMA (~ low-90s) on volume would flip uptrend structure to broken and warrant exit.

The verdict

Sector analyst (Drake panel)neutral
conviction 0.55
  • Above both 50/200DMA so long-term uptrend intact
  • But strong down-momentum + extreme ATR = no clean dip to add
Risks: ADX 40 strong-down, RSI 36 and -8.5% on the month; 10.7% ATR and SpaceX IPO repricing the whole space sector.
Analyzed Jun 10, 2026 Resolves Jul 10, 2026 Schema v3 Run 322b6762ecde9817 Engine Drake · synthesized panel

Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.