Second Order/ stocks
← All runs·Jun 10, 2026
QBTS
QBTS
HOLD

Above both MAs but momentum negative

P(upside)43%
coin-flip = 50%
Conviction0.48
Horizon2-6 weeks
ResolutionPending graded vs the realized move

Price

Price at analysis
$24.09

The case

● Bull — what supports it

Up to $100M US gov equity stake, Q1 bookings surged to $33.4M; still above both MAs.

● Bear — what refutes it

ADX 35 down, slipped below 28, heavy dilution risk, 12% ATR; quantum de-rating.

What would change our mind

Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.

  • Loss of 50DMA flips structure to broken.

The verdict

Sector analyst (Drake panel)neutral
conviction 0.48
  • Above both MAs but momentum negative
  • Dilution risk + speculative — hold, do not add
Risks: ADX 35 down, slipped below 28, heavy dilution risk, 12% ATR; quantum de-rating.
Analyzed Jun 10, 2026 Resolves Jul 10, 2026 Schema v3 Run 5f86e6a65c80d399 Engine Drake · synthesized panel

Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.