Second Order/ stocks
← All runs·Jun 10, 2026
INTU
INTU
HOLD

Below both MAs, STRONG_TREND_DOWN with active legal/competitive overhang - avoid the knife

P(upside)42%
coin-flip = 50%
Conviction0.50
Horizon2-6 weeks
ResolutionPending graded vs the realized move

Price

Price at analysis
$285.71

The case

● Bull — what supports it

Down 62% from highs with a raised FY26 outlook ($23.80-23.85 EPS) and RSI 31, a deeply oversold contrarian setup if the TurboTax pricing scare is overdone.

● Bear — what refutes it

Admitted it 'lost on price' in core DIY tax, cutting 17% of staff, facing securities-fraud investigations, below both MAs in a STRONG_TREND_DOWN and the top Nasdaq-100 laggard.

What would change our mind

Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.

  • A reclaim of the 50DMA with RSI clearing 50 would signal the fundamental reset has bottomed.

The verdict

Sector analyst (Drake panel)neutral
conviction 0.50
  • Below both MAs, STRONG_TREND_DOWN with active legal/competitive overhang - avoid the knife
  • Oversold but broken fundamentals (price loss, layoffs, probes) override mean-reversion appeal
Risks: Admitted it 'lost on price' in core DIY tax, cutting 17% of staff, facing securities-fraud investigations, below both MAs in a STRONG_TREND_DOWN and the top Nasdaq-100 laggard.
Analyzed Jun 10, 2026 Resolves Jul 10, 2026 Schema v3 Run 6f5e4e8e23b4f97a Engine Drake · synthesized panel

Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.