INTU
INTU
Below both MAs, STRONG_TREND_DOWN with active legal/competitive overhang - avoid the knife
Price
Price at analysis
$285.71
The case
● Bull — what supports it
Down 62% from highs with a raised FY26 outlook ($23.80-23.85 EPS) and RSI 31, a deeply oversold contrarian setup if the TurboTax pricing scare is overdone.
● Bear — what refutes it
Admitted it 'lost on price' in core DIY tax, cutting 17% of staff, facing securities-fraud investigations, below both MAs in a STRONG_TREND_DOWN and the top Nasdaq-100 laggard.
What would change our mind
Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.
- A reclaim of the 50DMA with RSI clearing 50 would signal the fundamental reset has bottomed.
The verdict
Sector analyst (Drake panel)–neutral
conviction 0.50
- Below both MAs, STRONG_TREND_DOWN with active legal/competitive overhang - avoid the knife
- Oversold but broken fundamentals (price loss, layoffs, probes) override mean-reversion appeal
Risks: Admitted it 'lost on price' in core DIY tax, cutting 17% of staff, facing securities-fraud investigations, below both MAs in a STRONG_TREND_DOWN and the top Nasdaq-100 laggard.
Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.