Second Order/ stocks
← All runs·Jun 10, 2026
KMI
KMI
HOLD

Below 50DMA with soft 3m trend — not a dip-in-uptrend

P(upside)45%
coin-flip = 50%
Conviction0.55
Horizon2-6 weeks
ResolutionPending graded vs the realized move

Price

Price at analysis
$31.98

The case

● Bull — what supports it

Above 200DMA, lowest ATR (1.9%) in the group, stable fee-based pipeline cash flows and ~high dividend yield; natgas/LNG buildout supports volumes.

● Bear — what refutes it

Below 50DMA, -2.4% 3m, ADX 24 sub-trend with weak momentum; fee-based model captures little of the oil-price spike.

What would change our mind

Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.

  • Reclaim and hold above the 50DMA.

The verdict

Sector analyst (Drake panel)neutral
conviction 0.55
  • Below 50DMA with soft 3m trend — not a dip-in-uptrend
  • Fee-based: limited spike participation
Risks: Below 50DMA, -2.4% 3m, ADX 24 sub-trend with weak momentum; fee-based model captures little of the oil-price spike.
Analyzed Jun 10, 2026 Resolves Jul 10, 2026 Schema v3 Run 7132bb9da3215552 Engine Drake · synthesized panel

Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.