Second Order/ stocks
← All runs·Jun 10, 2026
ASTS
ASTS
HOLD

Above both MAs and best 1-month relative strength in space cohort

P(upside)48%
coin-flip = 50%
Conviction0.55
Horizon2-6 weeks
ResolutionPending graded vs the realized move

Price

Price at analysis
$89.57

The case

● Bull — what supports it

FCC commercial SCS authorization, BlueBird 8/9/10 launch mid-June (near catalyst), ~60 MNO partners / 3B subs, +8.5% on month.

● Bear — what refutes it

ADX 28 down with RSI 38, 13% ATR; binary launch risk and SpaceX IPO sector pressure.

What would change our mind

Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.

  • Failed/scrubbed BlueBird launch or loss of 50DMA would break the setup.

The verdict

Sector analyst (Drake panel)neutral
conviction 0.55
  • Above both MAs and best 1-month relative strength in space cohort
  • But imminent launch is binary — hold, don't add ahead of it
Risks: ADX 28 down with RSI 38, 13% ATR; binary launch risk and SpaceX IPO sector pressure.
Analyzed Jun 10, 2026 Resolves Jul 10, 2026 Schema v3 Run 84cdaaa295857de2 Engine Drake · synthesized panel

Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.