Second Order/ stocks
← All runs·Jun 10, 2026
RGTI
RGTI
SELL

Below 200DMA in confirmed downtrend

P(upside)40%
coin-flip = 50%
Conviction0.50
Horizon2-6 weeks
ResolutionPending graded vs the realized move

Price

Price at analysis
$20.02
Now
$20.62
Since analysis
+3.0%

The case

● Bull — what supports it

Up to $100M US government equity stake, Q1 rev nearly tripled to $4.4M, hardware-milestone leader.

● Bear — what refutes it

Below 200DMA, ADX 38 strong-down, -10% in early June, tiny revenue base, 13.7% ATR.

What would change our mind

Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.

  • Reclaim of 200DMA on volume would invalidate the broken-structure thesis.

The verdict

Sector analyst (Drake panel)bearish
conviction 0.50
  • Below 200DMA in confirmed downtrend
  • Pre-revenue valuation unwinding post government-stake pop
Risks: Below 200DMA, ADX 38 strong-down, -10% in early June, tiny revenue base, 13.7% ATR.
Analyzed Jun 10, 2026 Resolves Jul 10, 2026 Schema v3 Run 92432051277b9a66 Engine Drake · synthesized panel

Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.