Second Order/ stocks
← All runs·Jun 10, 2026
LUNR
LUNR
HOLD

Below 50DMA in active downtrend

P(upside)42%
coin-flip = 50%
Conviction0.50
Horizon2-6 weeks
ResolutionPending graded vs the realized move

Price

Price at analysis
$26.66

The case

● Bull — what supports it

Record $186.7M Q1 rev (~3x YoY), $1.1B backlog, $6.2B Space Force Andromeda IDIQ ceiling, positive adj EBITDA.

● Bear — what refutes it

Below 50DMA, RSI 30, -17.8% on month, 16% ATR; selling into SpaceX IPO reset.

What would change our mind

Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.

  • Reclaim and hold of 50DMA would signal the downtrend has stalled.

The verdict

Sector analyst (Drake panel)neutral
conviction 0.50
  • Below 50DMA in active downtrend
  • Improving fundamentals but tape is hostile and very volatile
Risks: Below 50DMA, RSI 30, -17.8% on month, 16% ATR; selling into SpaceX IPO reset.
Analyzed Jun 10, 2026 Resolves Jul 10, 2026 Schema v3 Run 98b1338aab8ddcb0 Engine Drake · synthesized panel

Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.