Second Order/ stocks
← All runs·Jun 10, 2026
QUBT
QUBT
SELL

Below 200DMA in active downtrend

P(upside)38%
coin-flip = 50%
Conviction0.48
Horizon2-6 weeks
ResolutionPending graded vs the realized move

Price

Price at analysis
$9.77
Now
$9.90
Since analysis
+1.3%

The case

● Bull — what supports it

Q1 rev +5,951% YoY off tiny base; thin-film photonics narrative; +28% 3mo.

● Bear — what refutes it

Below 200DMA, ADX 33 down, heaviest dilution risk in cohort, negligible revenue.

What would change our mind

Drake commits in advance to what would prove this call wrong — falsifiers, not hindsight.

  • Reclaim of 200DMA on volume.

The verdict

Sector analyst (Drake panel)bearish
conviction 0.48
  • Below 200DMA in active downtrend
  • Highest-dilution / lowest-quality quantum name
Risks: Below 200DMA, ADX 33 down, heaviest dilution risk in cohort, negligible revenue.
Analyzed Jun 10, 2026 Resolves Jul 10, 2026 Schema v3 Run dde011fdc4a0ee09 Engine Drake · synthesized panel

Forward-only: this call is graded against the future, on its resolution date — never backfilled. This run carries a single synthesized panel verdict; multi-specialist runs list each view above.